THE WEEKEND WARRIOR Early Edition Jan. 10, 2025

DEN OF THIEVES 2: PANTERA, BETTER MAN, THE LAST SHOWGIRL, GAME CHANGER, HARD TRUTHS

After a quieter lead-off weekend to the year, we’re getting back into things with one action sequel and a bunch of awards fare, essentially more moderate releases of movies relying on buzz from festivals, awards consideration and platform releases. All that and one Telugu-language movie that I know absolutely nothing about, similar to all the other Telegu-language movies that don’t seem to care about being reviewed in advance.

That said, I’ll have reviews of some of the new wide releases later in the week, possibly even on Wednesday… but more likely on Thursday morning. I’ve decided to offer this week’s box office preview ahead of the regular column on Thursday to all subscribers, but next week, I’ll be back to doing a separate earlier edition for paid subscribers only… because that’s been going so well for me.

There isn’t much to say about the significance of this weekend since unlike next weekend, it doesn’t have the added benefits of the MLK Jr. government holiday on Monday. This is basically a January weekend where people are back to work and school and maybe not so keen about getting out to the movies, so all those family films that thrived over the holidays will have to make room for new stuff. That said, there is a sequel to a relatively big hit, and that should have the most significant opening, as most of the country gets back to work and school, and it’s doubtful any movie will make more than $15 million this weekend.

DEN OF THIEVES 2: PANTERA (Lionsgate)

Gerard Butler is back as “Big Nick” O’Brien, the L.A. sheriff who took on a carefully-planned heist in the 2018 film Den of Thieves, released by the defunct STXfilms on Jan. 19, 2018 to the tune of a $15 million opening in 2,432 theaters on its way to $44.9 million domestic and $80.1 million worldwide. Nick is back and still pursuing O’Shea Jackson Jr’s Donnie Wilson, who as one of the survivors of the heist has fled to Europe to go into hiding.

Director Christian Budegast, who also wrote London Has Fallen for Butler and produced 2023’s Plane, which wasn’t quite as successful when released in Jan. 2022, is back behind the camera for this action sequel, and oddly, there aren’t many other name actors as Lionsgate takes over distribution, releasing the movie into over 2,800 theaters this Friday.

Butler hasn’t been doing that great since COVID with Greenland going to streaming due to COVID, followed by Cop Shop, which barely made a mark in September 2021, followed by Plane, which did slightly better, and Kandahar, which also bombed, the latter as the box office was back in May 2023. One thing Butler has proven is that when he does a sequel to one of his more popular movies (ala the “Fallen” series), his older male fans will go out to see them in theaters, although times have definitely changed since his last big hit, Angel Has Fallen. It will be particularly interesting when Butler returns to play the viking Stoick the Vast after voicing the character in three popular animated films from DreamWorks Animation.

Jackson, the son of rapper Ice Cube, has been making a name for himself, following Den of Thieves with a key role in 2023’s Cocaine Bear, as well as various other roles.

The key to this sequel’s success is that there really isn’t anything else like it in theaters, with much of the fare being concentrated on family fare, but we’re also seeing movies like these not really delivering at the box office quite like they used to. Even so, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera should make anywhere between $12 and $15 million this weekend with a strong shot at winning the weekend.

THE LAST SHOWGIRL (Roadside Attractions)

Pamela Anderson makes her return to the big screen, staring in Gia Coppola’s indie drama playing showgirl Shelly, a veteran of the Vegas cabaret show, “Le Razzle Dazzle,” which is shuttering after many decades on the Strip. The film co-stars Jamie Lee Curtis, Dave Bautista, Brenda Song, Kiernan Shipka, and Billie Lourde, and it will be opening in roughly 750 theaters with buzz from when it premiered at a number of September film festivals. Even though Anderson has been give a lot of positive reviews for her performance, as well as for Bautista and Curtis, that hasn’t translated into many awards so far, although Anderson was nominated for a Golden Globe and at the Gotham Awards. Even so, this is likely to just miss the top 10 with less than $2 million.

BETTER MAN (Paramount)

I already reviewed this musical biopic about the great Robbie Williams, directed by Michael Gracey of The Greatest Showman (starring Hugh Jackman), but this weekend, it will get a wide release, and it should be an interesting entry into what’s expected to be a slower frame at the box office. Better Man premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) and generally got positive reviews even though American film critics might not be as familiar with Williams as those overseas where Williams had a bigger career.

That might be the film’s biggest hindrance since many of the more successful musicals and biopics either are about bigger stars like Elton John ala the biopic Rocketman (produced by Gracey, no less) or the recent A Complete Unknown. Since Williams is front and center essentially playing himself, it’s assumed people who already know his music will be more interested in this, although they took an interesting approach by having Williams portrayed as a photorealistic CG monkey. (Unfortunately, this made some parents think this would be appropriate for their kids, but this is definitely more deserving of its R-rating than other recent films tacked with that rating.)

Better Man hasn’t done that great in its platform release, only making about $89,000 in six theaters since opening on Christmas Day, compared to The Brutalist’s $1.2 million in a similar number theaters (but with a lot of higher ticket prices). Paramount feels a bit divided among a bunch of movies, including the drama September 5, which will be released nationwide next weekend. Williams and Gracey have been out and about drumming up press for the film, including a recent showing at the prestigious Palm Springs Film Festival, but as of this writing, I don’t have an estimated theater count. (The movie was also Regal’s Monday Mystery Movie to help build some word-of-mouth for the week, though word is that there were many walkouts.)

As of now, there’s a big question right now whether Paramount will be expanding the movie wide this weekend, and it will probably need to be in 1,500 or more theaters in order to break into the top 10, but that would only be for $3 million or less. It’s also going to have a tough time as we get into a month, where it doesn’t seem like a lot will truly break out.

Also, the Telugu-language movie GAME CHANGER is also opening fairly wide, probably 500 to 600 theaters, and I expect it to break into the top 10 and possibly even do better than a few of the other wide releases to get there. I will not be reviewing the movie since many of these Telugu imports are not screening in advance nor do they allow subscription services like AMC A-List and Regal Unlimited, and I have no plans of paying $26 to see it. Unfortunately, this might be an ongoing narrative throughout the year. I expect this to open with roughly $3 million this weekend, just based on the popularity of Telugu films with American-based Indian moviegoers.

At one point, HARD TRUTHS (Bleecker Street) – the new film from seven-time Oscar nominated British filmmaker Mike Leigh and his first theatrical release in six years – was going to be opening wide this weekend. Apparently, those plans have changed, so Leigh’s latest “kitchen drama,” reuniting him with his 1996 Secret and Lies Oscar-nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste will only be getting a more moderate release instead, and unfortunately, I don’t have a theater count for this one either.

There’s also a new movie starring and directed by Donnie Yen called The Prosecutor, but that seems to be getting a very limited release. So far, I only see one theater showing it in the New York area, and that’s in Flushing, Queens. I’ll be reviewing that in the regular column as well.

THE BOX OFFICE CHART

For a long time, I thought that Den of Thieves 2 might have a tough time against the stronger holiday family films, but it’s likely to be benefit by being one of the few new movies for older guys, and because of that, I’m expecting it to win the weekend by a slight margin and still with less than $15 million. For a few of the new releases – noted below with an asterisk – there have been no estimated theater counts at the time of this writing, and some of them might not be going as wide as previously reported.

1. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (Lionsgate) - $12.8 million N/A
2. Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) - $11.8 million -51%
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) - $10.5 million -51%
4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) - $7.2 million -46%
5. Moana 2 (Disney) - $6.4 million -48%
6. Wicked (Universal) - $5.4 million -47%
7. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) - $4.4 million -45%
8. Better Man (Paramount) - $3 million*
9. Babygirl (A24) - $2.5 million -44%
10. Game Changer - $2.3 million* N/A
– The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) $1.6 million N/A
– Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) - $850,000* N/A

Check back on Thursday for a few reviews of the movies above and a few others.