The Oscars Best Picture Race - Is This The Most Contentious and Chaotic Awards Season Ever?
Listing the advantages and drawbacks of all ten nominations
In past years and at past outlets, I’ve written a lot more about the Oscar race, often predicting many of the categories, sometimes months in advance. The lack of a permanent outlet, other than this Substack, has minimized my Oscar coverage, although I am in the midst of a series of below-the-line breakdowns for Gold Derby, and I also wrote about how the precursors affect the Oscars for Cinema Daily US.
On top of that, I was able to appear on Neil Rosen’s Talking Pictures Oscar episode, which airs on PBS and had me, Neil and a couple other colleagues talking about the Oscar race, which we actually taped two days before the revelations about Karla Sofia Gascon.
At the time of this writing, all of the major precursor awards other than BAFTA and SAG (Screen Actors Guild) have taken place. BAFTA Awards are announced on February 16 while Academy voters are still working on their ballots, and the SAG Awards won’t take place until February 23, well after that Oscar voting. Really, the only award that matters there that might affect the race to win Best Picture is SAG Ensemble, and only five of the ten Best Picture nominations at the Oscars were nominated there.
Ever since Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite won Best Picture a few years back, it’s become much more of a regular thing for foreign language films to get nominated in the International Feature category and for Best Picture, though last year, only The Zone of Interest was in the latter category even though both were also Best Picture nominees. Before that, it was the German Oscar selection, All Quiet on the Western Front, directed by Edward Berger who is back in the race with Conclave, and then the Japanese Oscar selection, Drive My Car, a year before that.
This year, Emilia Pérez has been the frontrunner to win International Feature for the longest time and then recent developments have possibly helped Brazil’s submission, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, which also received a surprise Best Picture nomination. Three movies that some felt should be in this race but weren’t able to go the full mile, included Sing Sing, A Real Pain and September 5, but they all were omitted from the Best Picture nominations.
The fact is that having ten Best Picture nominations opens things up for a much wider variety of films, both American and international. And yet, there are still so many factors to consider when looking at this year’s Best Picture race and the ten movies nominated for the top Oscar prize, so I’m going to just go through them individually, since even the most beloved movies that have already won awards might have issues that need to be considered, just like the Academy voters when they’re filling out their ballots.
At one point, I was going to list the movies in order of my personal preference from my top 25 of 2024, which included six of this year’s ten Best Picture nominees, but then I changed my mind and I’m just listing them in alphabetical order.
The “advantages” and “drawbacks” sections are self-explanatory, while the number in parentheses is where the movie ended up on my own personal Top 10. Otherwise, ATL = Above-the-line nominations i.e. acting, writing, directing and Best Picture, while BTL = below-the-line nominations i.e. crafts and technical categories. A couple other acronyms for those who just woke up and have never followed an Oscar race:
CCA = Critics Choice Awards (or Association)
DGA = Directors Guild
GG = Golden Globes
LAFCA = L.A. Film Critics Association
NBR = National Board of Review
NYFCC = New York Film Critics Circle
NYFF = New York Film Festival
PGA = Producers Guild
SAG = Screen Actors Guild
TIFF = Toronto International Film Festival
WGA = Writers Guild
ANORA (2)
ATL: 5
BTL: 1
ADVANTAGES:
Ever since Sean Baker’s latest independent film debuted at the Cannes Film Festival back in May, it had been receiving raves from anyone who has seen it, which isn’t bad for a filmmaker whose previous films have only amounted to one single Oscar nomination – Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project. Anora won the coveted Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival in May with much love for Mikey Madison’s performance especially, but it just has such a fun and positive tone with an almost fairy tale aspect ala Cinderella, only transposed to a seedier Brooklyn of sex workers and Russian oligarchs. It also has a fun narrative and message about how someone having to degrade herself to earn a living can have find herself in this fantasy world.
Anora received Oscar nominations both for directing and writing, but also for editing, three key categories that help pave the way for an Oscar win, but also two acting nominations. Anora might not have received anywhere close to the most nominations but it received important ones. We should remember that Sian Heder’s CODA only received three nominations in the year it won Best Picture, and it also won both other categories (Adapted Screenplay/Supporting Actor) as well.
Anora recently won the Critics Choice Awards for Best Film, followed by dual wins from the DGA and PGA, the latter two being huge Oscar predictors, all within 24 hours. That happened just days before Oscar voting begins, which will certainly help remind Oscar voters (some who attended the CCAs as nominees) how much they loved the movie thanks to Sean Baker’s impassioned speeches. Make no mistake that Anora has just moved into the frontrunner spot.
DRAWBACKS:
The lack of below-the-line support may be worrying, since if you put all those branches together, that’s a lot of Academy members. Up until the Critics Choice Awards, the movie had also seemingly been losing traction in the past few months as other movies were seen. Even Original Screenplay and Lead Actress, in which the movie had strength, had lost some ground as The Brutalist and Demi Moore had been finding traction due to their Golden Globe wins. In fact, not receiving any Golden Globes support forced many wonder to whether Anora stood a chance at winning Best Picture at the Oscars at all. If the movie also wins at BAFTA or any of the SAG Awards for which it’s nominated, then it has clinched that Best Picture win, though SAG Awards will only be announced after Oscar voting has closed.
THE BRUTALIST (9)
ATL: 6
BTL: 4
ADVANTAGES:
Ever since The Brutalist debuted during the September festival season – first at Venice, then at TIFF and the New York Film Festival – it’s been one of the most talked about movies with critical raves and awards. The TIFF press screening had to turn away hundreds of critics and the New York Film Festival ended up scheduling it for five or six screenings, unheard of for a movie not in one of its key Opening or Closing or Centrepiece gala slots.
When Brady Corbet wrote the script for this movie with his partner Mona Fastvold, neither of them could have had any idea that Donald Trump would have been reelected, creating a situation similar to the one in the movie with immigrants having to contend with a megalomaniacal millionaire with ultimate power. It ended up feeling so much more timely in the past month even than when it was first being seen as far back as early September.
The Brutalist’s above-the-line support is so crucial, especially its writing and directing nominations, but it’s also being seen as a favorite for Adrien Brody to win his second Oscar and Corbet to win for directing, both which would mirror their Golden Globe wins, where The Brutalist also won Best Picture Drama. In fact, The Brutalist won that Best Picture, besting both Conclave and A Complete Unknown.
DRAWBACKS:
There is no way around the fact that the movie is 3 ½ hours, and that’s just way too long. That could very well have hurt Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon last year, which was similarly epic and nominated for 10 Oscars but winning none. The Brutalist at least offers an intermission but then it returns with a second half full of drugs, rape, and similarly dark subjects. Not the type of cheery fare that Academy voters could probably use right now.
The Brutalist’s Golden Globe win might be a distant memory for Academy voters with everything that’s happened in the country since then, not to mention the L.A. fires, and as far as I know, the Golden Globes don’t have a single member in common with the Academy. Corbet’s epic also didn’t receive a SAG Ensemble nomination, nor did either Guy Pearce or Felicity Jones get nominated individually. That tells you that Corbet’s film might not have connected with actors the same way it has for critics and others in the industry. There’s also a chance that not enough SAG members wanted to endure a 3 ½ hour movie. Missing out on both DGA and PGA is dire, though, and The Brutalist may have to settle with a few below-the-line Oscars for cinematography and original score.
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN (4)
ATL: 6
BTL: 2
ADVANTAGES:
James Mangold’s musical biopic about Bob Dylan, starring Gen-Z A-lister Timothée Chalamet, has been wowing audiences since it first debuted, doing quite well at the box office and getting critical raves for Chalamet’s Dylan as well as the entire cast. It clearly has a lot of support from actual actors, since SAG nominated it in four of its five categories, including SAG Ensemble. It also received support from the three other major industry guilds, DGA, PGA, and the WGA. (With Conclave being excluded from WGA, the Mangold co-written screenplay could win there.)
Like The Brutalist, the movie has strong above-the-line support from the Academy as well as those guild nominations with Mangold getting into the directing nominations in a very tight and competitive race, even bumping Conclave director Edward Berger. The movie’s adapted screenplay also could derail Conclave’s win there with Mangold being more known in the industry.
Mangold’s biopic has what prognosticators like to call “momentum” as one of the movies that was released fairly late in the season bypassing all film festivals and instead being shown first to critics in November. Granted, the movie was added to the release schedule fairly late, so there’s a chance that Mangold was working on it right up until release, which does happen.
DRAWBACKS:
Although the movie is beloved and Dylan does have many lifelong fans, A Complete Uknown lacks the advance support from critics and other awards groups leading up to nominations, and it also doesn’t have the below-the-line support of many other Best Picture nominees, only being nominated for sound and costume design, neither which it’s likely to win.
For a long time, the movie’s best bets seemed to be a win for Chalamet’s portrayal of Dylan, but losing at the CCAs and the Globes to Adrien Brody recently puts it all on SAG to keep the two-time nominee in the running. SAG Awards are announced on Feb 23 after Oscar voting is closed, so even Chalamet won’t help its chances with Oscar voters.
Skipping the festival season, especially a critical one like Telluride, means that the movie has not been on Academy voters’ minds as long as other movies. Sure, being released later in the game might keep it fresher in memory, but by the time people saw it, they may have already been swayed to love other films released earlier in the year. It’s a true double-edged sword for Searchlight, who has a ton of experience with the Oscar race.
CONCLAVE
ATL: 4
BTL: 4
ADVANTAGES:
Ever since the Edward Berger-directed Vatican-based dramatic thriller debuted at Telluride and then TIFF, it’s been receiving rave reviews for everything from its script to Ralph Fiennes’ performance and technical aspects. It’s a strong script and actor-driven drama that is the type of movie that Academy voters absolutely love with 2015’s Spotlight, 2005’s Crash, and even Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker being great examples of serious drama winning out with important message-driven filmmaking. It’s interesting to note that Ben Affleck’s Argo also pulled a similar Telluride/TIFF premiere on its way to Oscar night, which is important to bear in mind. It won Best Picture without a corresponding directing nomination.
Berger is coming off his previous film, All Quiet on the Western Front, winning four Oscars including Best International Feature just two years back, similarly coming out of nowhere. When a filmmaker comes onto the Oscar scene with such a strong film, Academy members are going to pay close attention to their follow-up, which fortunately is a strong movie adapted from a Robert Harris best-selling novel.
Conclave’s strongest assets is that it has an amazing cast delivering on Peter Straughan’s fantastic adaptation and Berger’s direction really bringing things home with fantastic crafts work. This really should have been the frontrunner all season, but it’s a much tougher win now, even with eight Oscar nominations, which is nothing to scoff at.
DRAWBACKS:
The biggest problem facing Conclave is that Edward Berger was not nominated for director, though as we’ve seen over the past few decades, both Ben Affleck’s Argo and Sian Heder’s CODA won Best Picture without that important nomination. Berger did receive a DGA nomination (as did Affleck) but that and the fact it only received two acting nominations could be seen as a weakness for it winning Best Picture.
The movie just hasn’t had much traction among critics or other awards groups, although both Golden Globes and CCAs honored Peter Straughan’s adapted screenplay. At this point, Conclave really has to win the SAG Ensemble to be taken seriously as any kind of threat to win Best Picture, though the USC Scripter Awards (announced the day before SAG) could also give it some strength if it beats A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys, although that will also be announced after Oscar voting is over.
The film also has a twist that might be “problematic” (i.e.hard to believe) for some viewers, though that probably comes from Robert Harris’ book. It’s definitely something unexpected but it ties into issues facing those being targetted by America’s insufferable Bully in Chief.
DUNE: PART TWO (5)
ATL: 1
BTL: 4
ADVANTAGES:
This is one of two huge box office blockbusters in this year’s Oscar race, having grossed $715 million worldwide, there’s a good chance that most Academy members will have seen Denis Villeneuve’s 2nd part of his Frank Herbert sci-fi adaptation, which now seems to actually be a trilogy with Dune: Messiah on the schedule. Three years back, Dune: Part One swept the below-the-line categories for six Oscar wins out of ten nominations, and many (including myself) feel that Part Two is a significantly better movie.
DRAWBACKS:
Being released last March, almost one year ago, makes it a lot easier for Academy members to forget all about it, something that is always the concern with early-year releases. Granted, there have been movies that have gotten through the entire season to win Best Picture ala The Silence of the Lambs. Being a genre movie may also be problematic, looking at how James Cameron’s Avatar lost out to The Hurt Locker, and being a sequel also doesn’t help much with only The Godfather Part II and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King being examples of sequels excelling at the Oscars to the point of winning Best Picture.
The lack of above-the-line support and neither directing nor writing nominations doesn’t help the movie at all. Part 2 is also not as likely to win as many below-the-line Oscars as the first chapter, especially after receiving half as many nominations total with previous winner Hans Zimmer not being nominated for original score this time. The movie’s best bets are sound and visual effects, so yeah, Denis Villeneuve will be at the Oscars for producing the film, but he might have to wait a few years for a well-deserved Oscar once the trilogy is complete, whenever that is.
EMILIA PEREZ
ATL: 5
BTL: 9
ADVANTAGES:
French auteur Jacques Audiard’s Mexican-set crime-musical debuted at Cannes last year, and since then, it’s been highly touted for its mixing of genres, as well as touching upon topics that are all over the news these days due to the rights of transgender people and Latin American immigrants being taken away by our current President. The film went on to win three award at Cannes, for its four actresses, for director Audiard, and for its score, a great showing for a festival with an impressive roster of industry judges, led by Greta Gerwig.
The fact that the movie received 13 Oscar nominations, the most for any foreign language film ever, shows the amount of support the film had with the Academy among all the branches, as well as receiving crucial directing and writing nominations. It also received 13 Cesar Awards nominations and 12 BAFTA nominations, and that shows international support from an Academy that now has a lot more international members than ever before.
It’s been the frontrunner for supporting actress for Zoe Saldana and for its songs for a long time, but receiving so much support from just about every branch in the Academy moved it up the ranking to be a frontrunner to win Best Picture as recently as mid-January.
And then…
DRAWBACKS:
There’s no avoiding the Karla Sofia Gascon situation that has just exploded over the past week after racist tweets were discovered from her past, which has thrown Netflix’s entire campaign into disarray, as it tries to separate themselves from the film’s star, who literally plays the title character. It’s been a tough road that we might not be seeing much of a transition in precursors, especially since the CCAs were voted on back in early January before the whole thing blew up.
The film was always too divisive to win much beyond International Feature and a few other awards, but the KSG situation might make it harder for Academy voters to pick it even for International Feature.
One has to remember that the Cannes Film Festival is based in France, so of course, a film from a beloved French director is going to get tons of support there, same with the Cesars and even BAFTAs. That shouldn’t matter, going by Parasite and other international features winning in other Oscar categories, but that is a factor in play.
I’M STILL HERE (13)
ATL: 2
BTL: 0
ADVANTAGES:
When you talk about a movie gaining important last-minute momentum, you have to really be impressed with Walter Salles’ historic drama, as the Brazilian filmmaker returns to the Oscars 27 years after Central Station received two Oscar nominations for foreign language film and actress Fernanda Montengro. Coincidentally, the latter’s daughter, Fernanda Torres, has been all the talk this Oscar season after pulling a surprise win at the Golden Globes.
Like The Brutalist, the movie’s topic of how corrupt governments can abuse their power might hit close to home with Academy voters in America and other countries, and it gives the film a timely and important narrative with Torres being fully on the awards circuit for the film.
The film’s distributor, Sony Pictures Classics, has a long history of getting unlikely winners, most memorably with the win for Anthony Hopkins in The Father a few years back. That helps Torres, but maybe not the movie.
DRAWBACKS:
Not receiving any below-the-line support might not be too concerning, but receiving neither directing nor writing support – despite support in both categories for the French filmmakers of Emilia Pérez and The Substance – shows an implicit (but possibly subconscious) bias against Brazilian cinema that doesn’t give this much of a chance to win Best Picture.
Sony Classics also doesn’t have the budget of some of the competing studios to really push the movie as much as it needs to be.
While I’m Still Here now has a chance to win International Feature with the backlash against Emilia Pérez, it will have an almost impossible time besting stronger movies for the big prize on Oscar night.
NICKEL BOYS
ATL: 2
BTL: 0
ADVANTAGES:
A critical darling, RaMell Ross’ adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s award-winning novel burst onto the awards scene at last year’s Telluride, followed by an Opening Night slot at the New York Film Festival, two things that got the film many rave reviews, which led to wins at the Gotham Awards (for Ross and star Brandon Wilson), as well as wins at the New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics, though no wins for Best Picture. It’s tale of two black teens and their treatment at a boarding school is a powerful one that obviously had enough Academy fans to be nominated for Best Picture and for its Adapted Screenplay.
DRAWBACKS:
From when the movie first debuted during the September festival season, most notably launching the New York Film Festival, everyone had been raving about it, but as far as major awards, it just hasn’t gotten much support from actual industry voters with some real big misses with the Academy, not notably Jomo Fray’s cinematography, which has been cited by many critics’ groups. It was also noticeably absent from the PGA nominations, even though Ross received a DGA nomination as his first time narrative feature, which he might win.
Zero support from SAG and no below-the-line nominations also hurts the movie. For a long time, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor was in the discussion for a supporting actor nomination, and even that didn’t happen.
Nickel Boys also has strong competition both at WGA and with the USC Scripter from Conclave and A Complete Unknown, so this is category-filler at best.
THE SUBSTANCE
ATL: 4
BTL: 1
ADVANTAGES:
Another film that debuted at the Cannes Film Festival last May is Coralie Fargeat’s message-driven body horror film about how older women are treated by the entertainment industry as they get older. The genre filmfound many fans as it played at numerous festivals ahead of its theatrical release by streamer MUBI, it hitting the streamer shortly afterwards. The film has a lot of great narratives, firstly for star Demi Moore, who received her first Oscar nomination ever despite a career that goes back over 40 years, something that plays well with the film’s message.
Filmmaker Coralie Fargeat’s screenplay has been receiving raves ever since it won a prize at Cannes, and the fact that she received an Oscar nomination for her direction is showing a lot more strength for the movie from the Academy with so much above-the-line love.
The movie has also received a lot of love for Pierre Olivier Persin’s prosthetic make-up that’s won a lot of awards (includig at the CCAs) with more likely to come, as it’s considered the frontrunner to win the Oscar for Makeup and Hairstyling.
In many ways, The Substance is following a similar journey as last year’s Anatomy of a Fall, which received almost the exact same nomination, although it was nominated for editing.
The movie’s three wins (for Moore, Fargeat’s screenplay, and makeup) at the Critics Choice Awards comes at a timely moment just ahead of Oscar voting, which could definitely help both Moore and Fargeat, but…
DRAWBACKS:
Regardless of its social and entertainment industry relevant issues, The Substance is a horror movie through and through and a VERY gory one at that, and even with the support for Demi Moore and the makeup effects, it’s still going to be a tough movie to get through for Academy members. The last movie even remotely “horror” to win Best Picture was The Silence of the Lambs and that had a lot more support across the Academy.
This is another movie where the lack of below-the-line support hurts any chances it might have at winning Best Picture, and the fact that it only received one César Awards nomination (for Foreign Film, no less!) makes one wonder how international voters might see the movie, being an English language genre film from a French filmmaker.
WICKED
ATL: 3
BTL: 7
ADVANTAGES:
Besides being the highest grossing movies among this year’s Best Picture nominees, Wicked is a hugely popular (ha ha) movie based on an equally popular Broadway musical, and it certainly has its fans in the Academy, based on its ten nominations. Make no mistake that this is one of this year’s below-the-line frontrunners, pretty much cleaning up with craft nominations and considered to be the frontrunner for Costumes and Production Design while also in the running for others. On top of that, it has two acting nominations, including Ariana Grande’s supporting nomination which for months has had the potential to give Zoe Saldana a run for the Oscar.
One of the earliest movie awards groups, the National Board of Review presented Wicked with its award for Best Film as well as giving Best Director to Jon M. Chu, showing that there is a lot of populist support for the film. Clayton Davis of Variety, one of the most well-respected of the industry trades, was saying for months that this would win Best Picture. Jon M. Chu also won the Critics Choice Award for directing and gave a rousing speech, which doesn’t help him personally with Academy voters, but you better believe many were present and might consider Wicked when filling out their ballots. This is one of those really fortuitous examples of how important timing is to a successful Oscar campaign.
DRAWBACKS:
Sure, there could be some fans of the original musical and movie in the Academy, and it’s another strong positive offering, but with no writing or directing nominations and with it being the first of a two-part movie, many Academy voters might choose to wait and honor Wicked: For Good after that’s released in November. Although many felt that same way about Dune a few years back, when Denis Villeneuve wasn’t nominated for directing, but obviously, that wasn’t rectified for Dune: Part Two. Could Wicked: For Good end up with even stronger competition next year?
The last musical to win Best Picture was Chicago all the way back in 2003, twenty years ago, and though musicals do get nominated a lot, none has come close to winning Best Picture.
In conclusion, this race is Anora’s to lose, though The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown are also strong with Wicked or even Conclave still able to pull out an Oscar night shocker of a win. As the title of this piece says, this has been a season where different awards groups have gone in many different directions, which is why there’s been so much confusion, but at this point, Anora is sitting pretty in a very sweet spot to be an indie film to win Best Picture ala CODA a few years back, Nomadland, and others.